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Updated 12 October, 2003

US National Assessment of
the Potential Consequences
of Climate Variability and Change
Summary Tables of Scenarios Products
Table 3: Socioeconomic Data




Table 3: Socioeconomic Data

Table 3a: Socioeconomic forecasts (ORNL)
Description With DOE support, Oak Ridge National Laboratory is arranging for the availability of socioeconomic forecasts for the U.S.: national, state, and county. A primary source is the National Planners Association. This will include: a copy of the current BAU forecast to 2025 (by mid-September) definition of assumptions for high and low scenarios (by September 1) provision of the high and low scenarios, down to country level, to 2025 and provision of all three scenarios (high, low, and bau) to 2050.
Function To provide county level predictions of population and economic growth to the year 2050.
Availability Now
References and URLs Will be distributed via CD-ROMs to core NA participants
Technical Assistance Contact Tom Wilbanks.
Direct Link to Data None

Table 3b: Supporting Contextual Material (ORNL)
Description Oak Ridge National Laboratory is also arranging for some additional supporting contextual material, including: 
  • summary of forecasts of technological change in the U.S.
  • summary of forecasts of institutional change in the U.S.  
Also possible: 
  • summary of forecasts at the national level of economic and demographic variables out to 2100. 
  • summary of forecasts of land use change in the U.S. (nothing national appears to be available, but could summarize regional data).
Function To provide more detailed forecasts of socioeconomic variables.
Availability Drafts in August 1998
References and URLs Will be distributed via CD-ROMs to core NA participants
Technical Assistance Contact Tom Wilbanks.
Direct Link to Data None 
Table 3c: Extreme Weather Sourcebook
Description Roger Pielke, Jr. from NCAR led the development of this site, which provides data on the cost of damages from hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods in the U.S.
Function To provide the economic cost of extreme weather events in constant 1997 dollars, in order to simplify comparisons among extreme weather impacts and among states or regions.
Availability Now
References and URLs
Technical Assistance  
Direct Link to Data Extreme Weather Sourcebook

Boer, G.J., McFarlane, N.A., Laprise, R., Henderson, J.D., and J.-P. Blanchet. 1984. The Canadian Climate Centre spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Atmosphere-Ocean 22(4): 397-429.

Boer, G.J.; Flato, G.M.; Reader, M.C.; Ramsden, D. 1999a. "A transient climate change simulation with historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century", in press Climate Dynamics.

Boer, GJ., Flato, G.M., and Ramsden, D. 1999b. "A transient climate change simulation with historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century", in press Climate Dynamics.

Felzer, B. and Heard, P. 1999. "Precipitation differences amongst GCMs used for the U.S. National Assessment", Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(6): 1327-1339.

Felzer, B. 1999. "Hydrological implications of GCM results for the U.S> National Assessment". Proceedings of the Specialty Conference on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and CHange to Water Resources of the United States, 69-72.

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C.; Weaver, A.J. 1999. "The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its Climate", in press Climate Dynamics.

Johns T.C., Carnell R.E., Crossley J.F., Gregory J.M., Mitchell J.F.B., Senior C.A., Tett S.F.B. and Wood R.A. 1997 The Second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dynamics 13:103-134.

Karl, T.R., C.N. Williams, Jr., F.T. Quinlan, and T.A. Boden, 1990: United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) Serial Temperature and Precipitation Data, Environmental Science Division, Publication No. 3404, Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 389 pp.

Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP Modeling Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:857-862.

Kittel, T.G.F., J.A. Royle, C. Daly, N.A. Rosenbloom, W.P. Gibson, H.H. Fisher, D.S. Schimel, L.M. Berliner, and VEMAP2 Participants. 1997. A gridded historical (1895-1993) bioclimate dataset for the conterminous United States. Pages 219-222, in: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology, 20-24 October 1997, Reno, NV. American Meteorological Society, Boston.

McFarlane, N.A., Boer, G.J., Blanchet, J.P., and M. Lazare. 1992. The Canadian Cliamte Centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. Journal of Climate 5: 1013-1044.

Mitchell J.F.B., Johns T.C., Gregory J.M. and Tett S. 1995 Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature 376:501-504.

Mitchell J.F.B. and T.C. Johns. 1997. On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols. Journal of Climate 10(2): 245-267.

Sousounis, P.J. 1999. "A synoptic assessment of climate change model output: explaining the differences and similarities between the Canadian and Hadley climate models".  To be presented at the Eleventh Symposium on Global Change Studies, 80th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Jan. 10-14, 2000, Long Beach, CA.

VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:407-437.

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