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Updated 12 October, 2003

US National Assessment of
the Potential Consequences
of Climate Variability and Change
Summary Tables of Scenarios Products:
Table 2: Climate Scenario Data

 

 

 

Table 2a: VEMAP2 Climate Scenarios
Description The VEMAP Phase 2 transient climate scenario set is a companion to the VEMAP2 Historical Climate Dataset. The scenarios are derived from coupled atmospheric-ocean global climate model experiments with transient greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. The deltas and ratios are interpolated to a 0.5 deg lat/lon grid (without any topographic or other corrections) and then added/multiplied to the historical VEMAP dataset*. The variables include minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation (and irradiance), and vapor pressure (and relative humidity) and have both monthly and daily versions. To date, gridded scenario time series (1994-2100) are available for runs from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK (which ends at 2099). Additional sets will include runs from the NCAR Climate System Model. Daily fields are generated from monthly fields using a stochastic weather generator. Grid point daily data are not spatially auto-correlated at the daily timestep (i.e. daily events are not synchronous in adjacent grid cells), but are resolved on the VEMAP 0.5 x 0.5 grid, a finer resolution than the GCM data.
Function Model deltas and ratios have been superimposed on the VEMAP2 historical dataset to provide spatially comprehensive projections about temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and vapor pressures for the contiguous United States.
Availability Regional data currently available; watershed data in progress. 

Restrictions on use: The HADCM2 data may only be used for purposes related to VEMAP or the U. S. National Assessment. For any other purposes, you must get permission directly from David Viner at LINK.

References and URLs  [Kittel et al., 1997; Kittel et al., 1995; VEMAP members, 1995]

VEMAP home page: 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/

VEMAP2 dataset overview: 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/V2.html

VEMAP2 scenarios description: 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/
vemap/ve298.html#transSect

Technical Assistance 1. Time series of the monthly means (Coverage for the entire contiguous U.S. is available by request in NetCDF Format). 
  1. each grid point within each region and watershed
  2. averaged over each region and watershed
2. Time averages of the monthly means for each grid point within each region and watershed (Coverage for the entire contiguous U.S. is available by request in NetCDF format).
  • 2025-2034 (30 years in the future for both GCM scenarios)
  • 2090-2099 (100 years in the future for both GCM scenarios)
Daily data are available by request only.

Guidance on when to use the VEMAP data.

Images VEMAP maps

VEMAP trend maps

VEMAP absolute temperatures

VEMAP time series

HCN-based time series

VEMAP tables of Means & Variances

Direct Link to Data VEMAP2 Data Access.

Regional Data Access

* The baseline period is 1961-1990.  Both the model baseline and the observed baseline are a single value for each month averaged over the baseline period from the model and observed data, respectively.  Scenarios minimum and maximum temperatures are calculated from deltas, st. (monthly model future temperature - monthly model baseline temperature) + observational baseline temperature .  Scenario precipitation is calculated from ratios, st. (monthly model future precipitation/monthly model baseline precipitation) x observational baseline precipitation.  This method of supplying continuous time series from the historical period through the scenario period preserves the relative GCM variance (or exact in the case of deltas) for future years, while shifting the mean values for the future.  The variance for the historical period of the model simulations is not currently supplied but may be in the future.
 
 
Table 2b: Canadian Climate Centre (CGCM1)
Description The CCC CGCM1 transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate aerosol forcing (1%/yr increase in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate aerosols). The CGCM1 time period is from 1850-2100. The model runs include experiments forced with emission scenarios of 1% equivalent CO2 increase per year without sulfate aerosols, as well as a control experiment with present concentration of greenhouse gases.
Function Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual' scenario.
Availability Monthly data currently available. 

Daily data access in progress.

URLs [Boer et al., 1984,1999a,b; Flato et al., 1999; McFarlane et al., 1992]
Technical Assistance CCCma CGCM1 data directly from the GCM at model resolution. Please use the first ensemble (of 3 from the CGCM1) for consistency with the VEMAP2 data. The CGCM1 monthly data are currently available at the CCCMa www site (see below).  Contact  USGCRP Office  for any further information.
Images Soil Moisture

Snow Cover

Sea Ice Cover

Precipitation Extremes

Alaska

Direct Link to Data CGCM1 data

Sea Level Data

Storm Track Data

ENSO Indices and ENSO caveats

Other Climate Indices


 
 
Table 2c: UKMO/Hadley (HADCM2)
Description The UKMO Hadley Centre HADCM2  transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate aerosol forcing (1%/yr.increase in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate aerosols). The HADCM2 time period is from 1860-2099. The UK runs are actually ensemble runs with 4 members, and only the separate year-month data from each are in the database, but no variability statistics are available. The cases are: a. GH gas 1% (4 runs); b. GH gas 1% and aerosols (4 runs); c. GH gas is92d (which approximates 0.5%) (4 runs); d. GH gas is92d and aerosols (4 runs); e. Control run (1 run).
Function Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual' scenario.
Availability Monthly data currently available over the www (8 surface variables only). Other monthly and daily data (22 variables) available directly from David Viner at LINK.

Restrictions on use: TheHADCM2 data may only be used for purposes related to VEMAP or the U.S. National Assessment. For any other purposes, you must get permission directly from David Viner at LINK.

References and URLs [see Johns et al., 1997; Mitchell et al., 1995; Mitchell and Johns, 1997]

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/

Technical Assistance UKMO Hadley Centre HADCM2 data directly from the GCM at model resolution. Please use the first ensemble (of 4 from the HADCM2) for consistency with the VEMAP2 data. Some HADCM2 data are currently available at IPCC Data Distribution Centre (see below). Contact  USGCRP Office  for any further information.
Images Soil Moisture

Snow Cover

Sea Ice Cover

Precipitation Extremes

Alaska

Direct Link to Data IPCC Data Distribution Centre

Sea Level Data

Storm Track Data

ENSO Indices and ENSO caveats

Other Climate Indices


 
 
Table 2d: MPI/DKRZ
Description The MPI/DKRZ ECHAM4/OPYC3  transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate aerosol forcing (is92a equivalent CO2 and sulfate aerosols).
Function Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual' scenario.
Availability Monthly data currently available over the www (8 surface variables only). Other monthly and daily data currently being processed by NCAR.
References and URLs IPCC Data Distribution Centre
Technical Assistance Some MPI/DKRZ data are currently available at IPCC Data Distribution Centre (see below).
Direct Link to Data IPCC Data Distribution Centre

 
 
Table 2e: NCAR CSM
Description Runs include (1) Business as Usual scenario, and (2) stabilization at 550 ppm with CSM. 
Function Most recent 'business as usual' and stabilization scenarios, including the direct effect of multiple greenhouse gases, a real sulfate emissions model, and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model that is not flux-corrected.
Availability Now
References and URLs Journal of Climate, June 1998 (CSM Special Issue)
Technical Assistance   VEMAP-processed ascii and NetCDF files due in future.
Images CSM Maps
Direct Link to Data NCAR Data

 
 
Table 2f: DOE PCM
Description Runs include (1) IS92a Business as Usual scenario, and (2) stabilization at 550 ppm with PCM.
Function is92a 'business as usual' and stabilization scenarios, including the direct effect of multiple greenhouse gases and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model that is not flux-corrected.
Availability Now
References and URLs DOE PCM
Technical Assistance  
Images
Direct Link to Data DOE PCM Data

 
 
Table 2g: GFDL Runs
Description The GFDL R30 (3.75ox2.25o) transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate aerosol forcing (1%/yr.increase in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate aerosols). 
Function Direct GCM output of some atmospheric fields using the 1992 'business as usual' scenario.  However, model does not include a diunal cycle.
Availability Temperature extremes currently available from NACO on CD-ROMs prepared by NCDC.  Direct GCM data access in progress.
References and URLs  
Technical Assistance Contact the USGCRP Office to get the CD-ROM.
Direct Link to Data None

 
 
Table 2h: Model Intercomparison
Description Will combine and statistically analyze data from Canada (CCC), UK (UKMO/Hadley), Hamburg (Max-Planck), and NCAR. Will gather year-month data; prepare decade-month data; provide selected information about daily variability; prepare some decade data to show model response. NCAR will aim to prepare a CD-ROM.
Function To provide contextual comparisons between the different GCMs and climate scenarios used in the National Assessment.
Availability TBD
References and URLs  
Technical Assistance NCAR will prepare CD-ROM and www pages
Images Intercomparisons
Direct Link to Data None

 
 
Table 2i: Model Validation
Description A comparison of simulations of current climate from two coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models against observations and evaluation of their future climates.
Function To provide model validation of CGCM1 and HADCM2 over the U.S., by comparisons with both VEMAP and the Legates and Wilmott data set.
Availability Now
References and URLs VEMAP comparisons were prepared by B. Felzer.
Doherty, R. and L. O. Mearns, 1999, A comparison of simulations of current climate from two coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models against observations and evaluation of their future climates, Report to the National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC) in support of the US National Assessment.
Technical Assistance  
Direct Link to Data Model Biases

Doherty and Mearns report


 
 
Table 2j: Synthesis Document Figures
Description A complilation of figures under consideration for the climate section of the Foundation document (the more detailed version of the Synthesis Overview report).
Function  
Availability Now
References and URLs Felzer and Heard, 1999
Felzer, 1999
Sousounis, 1999
Technical Assistance  
Direct Link to Data Direct Link to Data

 
 References:
 
Boer, G.J., McFarlane, N.A., Laprise, R., Henderson, J.D., and J.-P. Blanchet. 1984. The Canadian Climate Centre spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Atmosphere-Ocean 22(4): 397-429.

Boer, G.J.; Flato, G.M.; Reader, M.C.; Ramsden, D. 1999a. "A transient climate change simulation with historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century", in press Climate Dynamics.

Boer, GJ., Flato, G.M., and Ramsden, D. 1999b. "A transient climate change simulation with historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century", in press Climate Dynamics.

Felzer, B. and Heard, P. 1999. "Precipitation differences amongst GCMs used for the U.S. National Assessment", Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(6): 1327-1339.

Felzer, B. 1999. "Hydrological implications of GCM results for the U.S> National Assessment". Proceedings of the Specialty Conference on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and CHange to Water Resources of the United States, 69-72.

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C.; Weaver, A.J. 1999. "The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its Climate", in press Climate Dynamics.

Johns T.C., Carnell R.E., Crossley J.F., Gregory J.M., Mitchell J.F.B., Senior C.A., Tett S.F.B. and Wood R.A. 1997 The Second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dynamics 13:103-134.

Karl, T.R., C.N. Williams, Jr., F.T. Quinlan, and T.A. Boden, 1990: United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) Serial Temperature and Precipitation Data, Environmental Science Division, Publication No. 3404, Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 389 pp.

Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP Modeling Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:857-862.

Kittel, T.G.F., J.A. Royle, C. Daly, N.A. Rosenbloom, W.P. Gibson, H.H. Fisher, D.S. Schimel, L.M. Berliner, and VEMAP2 Participants. 1997. A gridded historical (1895-1993) bioclimate dataset for the conterminous United States. Pages 219-222, in: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology, 20-24 October 1997, Reno, NV. American Meteorological Society, Boston.

McFarlane, N.A., Boer, G.J., Blanchet, J.P., and M. Lazare. 1992. The Canadian Cliamte Centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. Journal of Climate 5: 1013-1044.

Mitchell J.F.B., Johns T.C., Gregory J.M. and Tett S. 1995 Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature 376:501-504.

Mitchell J.F.B. and T.C. Johns. 1997. On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols. Journal of Climate 10(2): 245-267.

Sousounis, P.J. 1999. "A synoptic assessment of climate change model output: explaining the differences and similarities between the Canadian and Hadley climate models".  To be presented at the Eleventh Symposium on Global Change Studies, 80th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Jan. 10-14, 2000, Long Beach, CA.

VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:407-437.


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