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Updated 9 November 2005

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program
for Fiscal Year 2006

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and
The Subcommittee on Global Change Research
A Supplement to the President's Fiscal Year 2006 Budget

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The hardcopy version of this report is available free of charge from the GCRIO Online Catalog

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Atmospheric Composition

1)    Bates, T.S., P.K. Quinn, D.J. Coffman, D.S. Covert, T.L. Miller, J.E. Johnson, G.R. Carmichael, S. A. Guazzotti, D.A. Sodeman, K.A. Prather, M. Rivera, L.M. Russell, and J. T. Merrill, 2004: Marine boundary layer dust and pollution transport associated with the passage of a frontal system over eastern Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D19S19.

2)    Brown , S.S., J.E. Dibb, H. Stark, M. Aldener, M. Vozella, S. Whitlow, E.J. Williams, B.M. Lerner, R. Jakoubek, A.M. Middlebrook, J.A. de Gouw, C. Warneke, P.D. Goldan, W.C. Kuster, W.M. Angevine, D.T. Sueper, P.K. Quinn, T.S. Bates, J.F. Meagher, F.C. Fehsenfeld, and A.R. Ravishankara, 2004: Nighttime removal of NO x in the summer marine boundary layer. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L07108.

3)    Cziczo , D.J., P.J. DeMott, S.D. Brooks, A.J. Prenni, D.S. Thomson, D. Baumgardner, J.C. Wilson, S.M. Kreidenweis, and D.M. Murphy, 2004: Observations of organic species and atmospheric ice formation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12116.

4)    Hurst, D.F., P.A. Romashkin, J.W. Elkins, E.A. Oberlander, N.F. Elansky, I.B. Belikov, I G. Granberg, G.S. Golitsyn, A.M. Grisenko, C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, and P.J. Crutzen, 2004: Emissions of ozone-depleting substances in Russia during 2001. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D14303.

5)    Kahn, R., J. Anderson, T.L. Anderson, T. Bates, F. Brechtel, C.M. Carrico, A. Clarke, S.J. Doherty, E. Dutton, R. Flagan, R. Frouin, H. Fukushima, B. Holben, S. Howell, B. Huebert, A. Jefferson, H. Jonsson, O. Kalashnikova, J. Kim, S-W. Kim, P. Kus, W-H. Li, J.M. Livingston, C. McNaughton, J. Merrill, S. Mukai, T. Murayama, T. Nakajima, P. Quinn, J. Redemann, M. Rood, P. Russell, I. Sano, B. Schmid, J. Seinfeld, N. Sugimoto, J. Wang, E.J. Welton, J-G. Won, and S-C. Yoon, 2004: Environmental snapshots from ACE-Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D19S14.

6)    Koren , I., Y.J. Kaufman, Lorraine A. Remer, and J.V. Martins, 2004: Measurement of the effect of Amazon smoke on inhibition of cloud formation. Science,303, 1342-1345.

7)    Li , Q., J.H. Jiang, D.L. Wu, W.G. Read, N.J. Livesey, J.W. Waters, Y. Zhang, B. Wang, M.J. Filipiak, C.P. Davis, S. Turquety, S. Wu, R.J. Park, R.M. Yantosca, and D.J. Jacob, 2005: Convective outflow of South Asian pollution: A global CTM simulation compared with EOS MLS observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 , L14826.

8)    Quinn , P.K., D.J. Coffman,T.S. Bates, E.J. Welton, D.S. Covert, T.L. Miller, J.E. Johnson, and J. Anderson, 2004: Aerosol optical properties measured on board the Ronald H. Brown during ACE-Asia as a function of aerosol chemical composition and source region. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D19S01.

9)    Santee , M.L, G.L. Manney, N.J. Livesey, L. Froidevaux, I.A. MacKenzie, H.C. Pumphrey, W.G. Read, M.J. Schwartz, J.W. Waters, and R.S. Harwood, 2005: Polar processing and development of the 2004 Antarctic ozone hole: First results from MLS on Aura. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12817.

Climate Variability and Change

1)    Barron, J.A., D. Burky, and W.E. Dean, 2005. Paleoceanographic history of the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, over the past 15,000 years. Marine Micropaleonology, 50(3-4), 185-207.

2)    Caya, D. and S. Biner, 2004: Internal variability of RCM simulations over an annual cycle. Climate Dynamics, 22, 33-46.

3)    Chen, D., M.A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S.E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.

4)    Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, W.B. Norris, and W.D. Braswell, 2003: Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 20, 613-629.

5)    Collins, W.D., et al., 2005: The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. Journal of Climate (submitted).

6)    Cook, E.R., C.W. Woodhouse, C.M. Eakin, D.M. Meko, and D.W. Stahle, 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science, 306(5698), 1015-1018.

7)    Delworth, T.L., et al., 2005: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models – Part 1: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate (submitted).

8)    Hakkinen, S. and P. Rhines, 2004: Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science, 304, 555-559.

9)    Hansen, J., et al., 2005: Efficacy of climate forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research (submitted).

10) Hansen, J. and L. Nazarenko, 2004: Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(2), 423-428.

11) Hoerling, M.P., J.W. Hurrell, T. Xu, G.T. Bates, A.S., Phillips, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dynamics, 23, 391-405.

12) Klein, S.A., R. Pincus, C. Hannay, K.-M. Xu, 2005: How might a statistical cloud scheme be coupled to a mass-flux convection scheme? Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D15S06.

13) Knutson, T.K. and R.E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO 2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17(18), 3477-3495.

14) Mears, C.A., M.C. Schabel, and F.W. Wentz, 2003: A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record. Journal of Climate, 16, 3650-3664.

15) Meehl, G.A., et al., 2005: Climate change in the 20 th and 21 st centuries and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. Journal of Climate (submitted).

16) Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21 st century. Science, 305, 994-997.

17) Pincus, R., C. Hannay, S.A. Klein, K.-M. Xu, R. Hemler, 2005: Overlap assumptions for assumed probability distribution function cloud schemes in large-scale models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D15S09.

18) Pollack, H.N. and J.E. Smerdon, 2004: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D11106.

19) Poore, R.Z., M.J. Pavich, and H.D. Grissino-Mayer, 2005: Record of North American southwest monsoon from Gulf of Mexico sediment cores. Geology, 33(3), 209-212.

20) Ramaswamy, V., M.-L. Chanin, J. Angell, J. Barnett, D. Gaffen, M. Gelman, P. Keckhut, Y. Koshelkov, K. Labitzke, J.-J.R. Lin, A. O'Neill, J. Nash, W. Randel, R. Rood, K. Shine, M. Shiotani, and R. Swinbank, 2001: Stratospheric temperature trends: Observations and model simulations. Reviews of Geophysics, 39(1), 71-122.

21) Roads, J.O., 2004: Experimental weekly to seasonal, global to regional U.S. precipitation forecasts. Journal of Hydrology, 288, 153-169.

22) Scambos, T.A., J.A. Bohlander, C.A. Shuman, and P. Skvarca, 2004: Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18402.

23) Thomas, R., E. Rignot, G. Casassa, P. Kanagaratnam, C. Acuna, T. Akins, H. Brecher, E. Frederick, P. Gogineni, W. Krabill, S. Manizade, H. Ramamoorthy, A. Rivera, R. Russell, J. Sonntag, R. Swift, J. Yungel, and J. Zwally, 2004: Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica. Science, 306(5694), 255-258.

24) Washington, W.M., J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner Jr., T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig, W.G. Strand, J. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James and Y. Zhang, 2000: Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics, 16, 755-774.

25) Whitaker, J.S., G.P. Compo, X. Wei, and T.M. Hamill, 2004: Reanalysis without radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1190-1200.

26) Xie, S., M. Zhang, J.S. Boyle, R.T. Cederwall, G.L. Potter, and W. Lin, 2004: Impact of a revised convective triggering mechanism on Community Atmosphere Model, Version 2, simulations: Results from short-range weather forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D14102.

Global Water Cycle

1)    Barlow, M., M. Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over Southwest Asia by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review (accepted).

2)    Bond, N.A., J.E. Overland, M. Spillane, and P. Stabeno, 2003: Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, DOI 10.1029/2003GL018597.

3)    Christensen, N.S., A.W. Wood, N. Voisin, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.N. Palmer, 2004: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363.

4)    Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan , M.K. Meyer , and A.E. Jeton , 2004:. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and changes in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317.

5)    Fountain, A.G., R.M. Krimmel, and D.C. Trabant, 1997: A Strategy for Monitoring Glaciers. U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1132, 19 pp.

6)    Hodgkins, G.A., R.W. Dudley, and T.G. Huntington, 2003: Changes in the timing of high river flows in New England over the 20th Century. Journal of Hydrology, 278, 244-252.

7)    Kenneth, E.M, et al., 2004: The multi-institution Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. Journal of Geophysical Research,109, D07S90.

8)    Knowles, N. and D.R. Cayan, 2004. Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco estuary and watershed. Climatic Change, 62, 319-336.

9)    Koster, R.D., P.A. Dirmeyer, Z. Guo, G. Bonan, E. Chan, P. Cox, C.T. Gordon, S. Kanae, E. Kowalczyk, D. Lawrence, P. Liu, C.-H. Lu, S. Malyshev, B. McAvaney, K. Mitchell, D. Mocko, T. Oki, K. Oleson, A. Pitman, Y.C. Sud, C.M. Taylor, D. Verseghy, R. Vasic, Y. Xue, and T. Yamada, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138-1140.

10) Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.M. Washington, J. Han, and J.O. Roads, 2004: Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Climatic Change, 62, 75-113.

11) Manabe, S., P.C.D. Milly, and R. Wetherald, 2004: Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49(4), 625-642.

12) McCabe, G.J., M.A. Palecki, and J.L. Betancourt, 2004. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(12), 4136-4141.

13) Mesinger, F., et al., 2005: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (submitted).

14) Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(1), 39-49.

15) Stewart, I.T., D.R. Cayan, and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a "Business as Usual" climate change scenario. Climatic Change, 62, 217-232.

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

1)    Alig, R.J. and B.J. Butler, 2004: Area Changes for Forest Cover Types in the United States, 1952 to 1997, with Projections to 2050. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-613. Portland, OR: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 106 pp.

2)    Bockstael, N. and E. Irwin, 2003: Public policy and the changing landscape. Estuaries, 26, 210-225.

3)    Curran, L.M., S. Trigg, A. McDonald, D. Astiani, Y.M. Hardiono, P. Siregar, I. Caniago, and E. Kasischke, 2004: Lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo. Science, 303, 1000-1003.

4)    de Beurs, K.M. and G.M. Henebry, 2004a: Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: Analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sensing of Environment, 89, 497-509.

5)    de Beurs, K.M. and G.M. Henebry, 2004b: Trend analysis of the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) NDVI data for the deserts of Central Asia. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 1(4), 282-286.

6)    Elvidge, C.D., C. Milesi, J.B.Dietz, B.T. Tuttle, P.C. Sutton, R. Nemani, and J.E. Vogelmann, 2004: U.S. constructed area approaches the size of Ohio. EOS Transactions,85(24), 233–240.

7)    Goetz, S.J., C.A. Jantz, S.D. Prince, A.J. Smith, R. Wright, and D. Varlyguin, 2004: Integrated analysis of ecosystem interactions with land use change: The Chesapeake Bay watershed. In: Ecosystems and Land Use Change [DeFries, R.S., G.P. Asner, and R.A. Houghton (eds.)]. American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph Series, Washington, DC. pp. 263-275.

8)    Grünberg, W., B.J. Orr, G.L. Christopherson, and P.S. Johnson, 2002: Integrating biophysical, climate, and human factors in a wildfire model. Proceedings of the 22nd Annual ESRI International User Conference, July 7-11, 2002, San Diego, California.

9)    Gutman, G., A.C. Janetos, C.O. Justice, E.F. Moran, J.F. Mustard, R.R. Rindfuss, D. Skole, B.L. Turner II, M.A. Cochrane, 2004: Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the Earth's Surface. Remote Sensing and Digital Image Processing Series, Vol. 6. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany and New York, USA, 461 pp.

10) Henebry, G.M., K.M. de Beurs, and A.A. Gitelson, 2005: Land surface phenologies of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan between 1982 and 1999. Arid Ecosystems (in press).

11) Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, A.J. Smith, and M. Shelley, 2004: Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the land use impacts of policy scenarios in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. Environment and Planning (B), 36(2), 211-215.

12) McNulty, S., G. Sun, and J. Moore Myers, 2004: Climate, population and vegetation cover change impacts on water yield and demand across the southern U.S. In: Proceedings of Geographic Information Systems and Water Resources III, American Water Resources Association Spring Specialty Conference, May 17-19, 2004, Nashville, Tennessee,11 pp.

Global Carbon Cycle

1)    Angert, A., S. Biraud, C. Bonfils, W. Buermann, and I. Fung, 2004: CO 2 seasonality indicates origins of post-Pinatubo sink. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019760.

2)    Cambardella, C.A., K. Schilling, P. Drobney, T. Isenhart, and R. Schultz, 2004: Soil carbon assessment across a native prairie restoration chronosequence. In: Proceedings of the 18 th Annual North American Prairie Conference. June 23-27, 2002 [Fore, S. (ed.)]. Truman State University Press, Kirksville, Missouri, USA. pp. 49-53.

3)    Euliss, N.H., R. Gleason, A.E. Olness, R.L. McDougal, H. Murkin, R. Robarts, R. Bourbonniere, B. Warner, 2003: Prairie wetlands of North America important for carbon storage. Geological Society of America. Paper no. 110-10.

4)    Feely,R.A., C.L. Sabine, T. Ono, A. Murata, R. Key, C. Winn. M. Lamb, and D. Greeley, 2004: CLIVAR/CO 2 Repeat Hydrography Program: Initial carbon results from the North Pacific Ocean. Eos Transactions, AGU, 85(47), Fall Meeting Supplement OS24B-02.

5)    Gu,L.H., D.D. Baldocchi, S.C. Wofsy, J.W. Munger, J.J. Michalsky, S.P. Urbanski, and T.A. Boden, 2003: Response of a deciduous forest to the Mount Pinatubo eruption: Enhanced photosynthesis. Science, 299, 2035-2038.

6)    Harden, J.W., R. Meier, C. Darnel, D.K. Swanson, and A.D. McGuire, 2003: Soil drainage and its potential for influencing wildfire in Alaska. In: Studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey [Galloway, J. (ed.)]. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1678.

7)    Hollinger, D.Y., J. Aber, B. Dail, E.A. Davidson, S.M. Goltz, H. Hughes, M.Y. Leclerc, J.T. Lee, A.D. Richardson, C. Rodrigues, N.A. Scott, D. Achuatavarier, and J. Walsh, 2004: Spatial and temporal variability in forest-atmosphere CO 2 exchange. Global Change Biology, 10, 1689-1706.

8)    King, J.S., P.J. Hanson, E. Bernhardt, P. DeAngelis, R.J. Norby, and K.S. Pregitzer, 2004: A multi-year synthesis of soil respiration responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 from four forest FACE experiments. Global Change Biology, 10, 1027-1042.

9)    Lal, R., R.F. Follett, and J.M. Kimble, 2003: Achieving soil carbon sequestration in the U.S.: A challenge to the policymakers. Soil Science, 168, 827-845.

10) Law, B.E., D. Turner, J. Campbell, O.J. Sun, S. Van Tuyl, W.D. Ritts and W.B. Cohen. 2004: Disturbance and climate effects on carbon stocks and fluxes across western Oregon USA. Global Change Biology,10, 1429-1444.

11) Matamala R., M.A. Gonzàlez-Meler, J.D. Jastrow, R.J. Norby, and W.H. Schlesinger, 2003: Impacts of fine root turnover on forest NPP and soil C sequestration potential. Science, 302, 1385-1387.

12) McClain, C.R., S.R. Signorini, and J.R. Christian, 2004: Subtropical gyre variability observed by ocean color. Deep-Sea Research, Pt. II, 51(1-3), 281-301.

13) Melack , J.M., L.L. Hess, M. Gastil, B.R. Forsberg, S.K. Hamilton, I.B.T. Lima, and E.M.L.M. Novo, 2004: Regionalization of methane emissions in the Amazon Basin with microwave remote sensing. Global Change Biology, 10 , 530-544.

14) Norby R.J., J. Ledford, C.D. Reilly, N.E. Miller and E.G. O'Neill, 2004: Fine root production dominates response of a deciduous forest to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101, 9689-9693.

15) Powers, R.F., F.G. Sanchez, D.A. Scott, and D. Page-Dumroese, 2004: The North American long-term soil productivity experiment: coast-to-coast findings from the first decade. In: Silviculture in Special Places [Shepperd, W.D. and L.G. Eskew (eds.)]. Proceedings of the National Silviculture Workshop at Granby, CO, 8-11, September 2003. Proceedings RMRS-P-34. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, pp. 191-206.

16) Russell, A.E., C.A. Cambardella, J.J. Ewel, and T.B. Parkin, 2003: Species, rotation, and life-form diversity effects on soil carbon in experimental tropical ecosystems. Ecological Applications, 14, 47-60.

17) Sabine, C.L., R.A. Feely, Y.W. Watanabe, and M.F. Lamb, 2004: Temporal evolution of the north Pacific CO 2 uptake rate. Journal of Oceanography, 60(1) , 5-15.

18) Saleska, S.R., S.D. Miller, D.M. Matross, et al., 2003: Carbon in Amazon forests: Unexpected seasonal fluxes and disturbance-induced losses. Science,302, 1554-1557.

19) USDA, 2004: U.S. Agriculture and Forestry Greenhouse Inventory: 1999-2001. Global Change Program Office, Office of the Chief Economist, USDA. Technical Bulletin No. 1907. 164 pp.

20) van der Werf, R. Guido, J.T. Randerson, G.J. Collatz, L. Giglio, P.S. Kasibhatla, A.F. Arellano Jr., S.C. Olsen, and E.S. Kasischke, 2004: Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period. Science, 303, 73-76.

21) Zak, D.R., W.E. Holmes, A.C. Finzi, R.J. Norby, and W.H. Schlesinger, 2003: Soil nitrogen cycling under elevated CO 2: A synthesis of forest FACE experiments. Ecological Applications, 13, 1508-1514.


1)    Behrenfeld, M.J., E. Boss, D.A. Siegel, and D.M. Shea, 2005: Carbon-based ocean productivity and phytoplankton physiology from space. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB1006.

2)    Fagre, D.B., D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl, 2003: Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability. Climatic Change, 59(1), 263-282.

3)    Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson, 2002: Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges. In: Mountain Biodiversity: A Global Assessment [Körner, C. and E.M. Spehn (eds.)]. Parthenon Publishing Group, London, United Kingdom, pp. 251-261.

4)    Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua, 2005: Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications, 15(1), 154-174.

5)    Hall, M.P. and D.B. Fagre, 2003: Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100, BioScience, 53(2), 131-140.

6)    Heron, S.F., and W.J. Skirving, 2004: Satellite bathymetry use in numerical models of ocean thermal stress. La Revista Gayana, 68(2), 284-288.

7)    Hessl, A.E., D. McKenzie, and R. Schellhaas, 2003: Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications, 14, 425-442.

8)    Hungate, B., P. Stiling, P. Dijkstra, D. Johnson, M. Ketterer, G. Hymus, C. Hinkle, and B. Drake, 2004: CO 2 elicits long-term decline in nitrogen fixation. Science, 304, 1291.

9)    Huxman, T.E., M.D. Smith, P.A. Fay, A.K. Knapp, M.R. Shaw, M.E. Loik, S.D. Smith, D.T. Tissue, J.C. Zak, J.F. Weltzin, W.T. Pockman, O.E. Sala, B.M. Haddad, J. Harte, G.W. Koch, S. Schwinning, E.E. Small, and D. Williams, 2004: Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency. Nature, 429, 651-654.

10) Imhoff, M., L. Bounoua, T. Ricketts, C. Loucks, R. Harriss, and W. Lawrence, 2004: Global patterns in human appropriation of net primary productivity. Nature, 429, 870-873.

11) King, J.R. (ed.), 2005: Report of the Study Group on the Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts. PICES Scientific Report No. 28, 162 pp.

12) Mack, M.C., E.A.G. Schuur, M.S. Bret-Harte, G.R. Shaver, and F.S. Chapin III, 2004: Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization. Nature, 431, 440-443.

13) Maherali, H., H.B. Johnson, and R.B. Jackson, 2003: Stomatal sensitivity to vapor pressure difference over a subambient to elevated CO 2 gradient in a C 3/C 4 grassland. Plant Cell and Environment, 26, 1297-1306.

14) Matthews, S., R. O'Connor, L.R. Iverson, and A.M. Prasad, 2004: Atlas of Climate Change Effects in 150 Bird Species of the Eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-GTR-318. USDA/USFS, Newtown Square, PA, 340 pp.

15) Ort, D.R. E.A. Ainsworth, M. Aldea, D.J. Allen, C.J. Bernacchi, M.R. Berenbaum, G.A. Boller, G. Cornic, P.A. Davey, O. Dermody, F.G. Dohleman, J.G. Hamilton, E.A. Heaton, A.D.B. Leakey, J. Mahoney, T.A. Mies, P.B. Morgan, R.L. Nelson, B. O'Neil, A. Rogers, A.R. Zangerl, X.-G. Zhu, E.H. DeLucia, and S.P. Long, 2005: SoyFACE: The effects and interactions of elevated CO 2 and O 3 on soybean. In: Managed Ecosystems and CO 2 Case Studies, Processes and Perspectives [Nosberger, J. (ed.)]. Springer-Verlag. (in press).

16) Pan, Y., J. Hom, R. Birdsey, and K. McCullough, 2004: Impacts of rising nitrogen deposition on N exports from forests to surface waters in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Environmental Management, 33(4) (Supplement), 120-131.

17) Pederson, G.T., D.B. Fagre, S.T. Gray, and L.J. Graumlich, 2004: Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12203.

18) Selkowitz, D.J., D.B. Fagre, and B.A. Reardon, 2002: Interannual variations in snowpack in the crown of the continent ecosystem. Hydrological Processes, 16, 3651-3655.

19) Skinner, C.N., 2003: Fire history of upper montane and subalpine glacial basins in the Klamath Mountains of northern California. In: Proceedings of Fire Conference 2000: The First National Congress on Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management [Krista, E., M. Galley, R.C. Klinger, and N.G. Sugihara (eds.)]. 27 Nov - 1 Dec 2000, San Diego, CA. MISC13, Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL, pp. 145-151.

20) Urban , F.E., J.E. Cole, and J.T. Overpeck, 2000: Influence of mean climatic change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record. Nature, 407, 989-993.

21) Whitlock, C., C.N. Skinner, P. Bartlein, T. Minkley, and J.A. Mohr, 2004: Comparison of charcoal and tree-ring records of recent fires in the eastern Klamath Mountains, California, U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 34(10), 2110-2121.

Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions and Responses

1)    Barker, C.M., W.K. Reisen, and V.L. Kramer, 2003: California state Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan: A retrospective evaluation using conditional simulations. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 68(5), 508-518.

2)    Birkett, C. and B. Doorn, 2003: A new remote-sensing tool for water resources management. EOM, 13(6), 20-21.

3)    Brown, T.J., A. Barnston, J.O. Roads, R. Martin, and K.E. Wolter, 2003: 2003 Seasonal consensus climate forecasts for wildland fire management. Experimental Long-Lead Forecasts Bulletin, 12(1), 6 pp.

4)    California Department of Health Services, 2004: California State Mosquito Borne Virus and Surveillance Response [PDF].

5)    Deadman, P.J., D.T. Robinson, E. Moran, and E. Brondizio, 2004: Effects of colonist household structure on land use change in the Amazon rainforest: An agent based simulation approach. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31, 693-709.

6)    Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan, M.K. Meyer, and A.E. Jeton, 2004: Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317.

7)    Garfin, G.M., T. Brown, R. Ochoa, and H. Hockenberry. 2004. National Seasonal Assessment Workshop: Western States and Alaska, Phoenix, AZ, March 30-April 2, 2004. Final Report. CLIMAS/ISPE, Tucson, 18 pp.

8)    Hamlet, A.F., D. Huppert, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2002: Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 128(2), 91-101.

9)    Jiang, L. and B.C. O'Neill, 2004: The energy transition in rural China. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 21(1/2), 2-26.

10) Lenart, M., T. Brown, H. Hockenberry, and G. Garfin, 2005: National Seasonal Assessment Workshop: Eastern and Southern States, Shepherdstown, WV, January 19-21, 2005. Final report. CLIMAS/ISPE, Tucson, 31 pp.

11) Lewandrowski, J., C. Jones, R. House, M. Peters, M. Sperow, M. Eve, and K. Paustian, 2004: Economics of Sequestering Carbon in the U.S. Agricultural Sector. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Technical Bulletin No. 1909, Washington, DC.

12) NASA, 2005: Earth-Sun System Applied Sciences Program: Public Health Program Element FY 2005-2009 Plan, [MS Word].  National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC, 23 pp.

13) NRC, 2005: Knowledge-Action Systems for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting: Summary of a Workshop [Cash, D. and J. Buizer (eds.)]. National Research Council, National Academies of Science, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 32 pp.

14) NRC, 2001: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Committee on the Science of Climate Change, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 42 pp.

15) Potter, C., S. Klooster, V. Genovese, and R. Myneni, 2003: Satellite data helps predict terrestrial carbon sinks. EOS Transactions,84,502-508.

16) Reinbold, H.J., J. Roads, and T.J. Brown, 2004: Evaluation of ECPC's fire danger forecasts using RAWS observations. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 14, 19-36.

17) Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program, 2003: Science and Technology for Sustainable Development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Special Feature, 100(14), 8059-8091.

18) Roads, J., F. Fujioka, S. Chen, and R. Burgan, 2005: Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Special Issue: Fire and Forest Meteorology, 14(1), 1-18.

19) West, J.M. and R.V. Salm, 2003: Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conservation Biology, 17(4), 956-967.

20) Westerling, A., A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, and T. Barnett, 2002: Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western US wildfires by ecosystem province. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 11, 257-266.

21) Western Governors' Association, 2004: Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century: The National Integrated Drought Information System [PDF]. Western Governors' Association, Denver, CO.

22) Wilkinson, C. (ed.), 1998: Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 1998. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Queensland, Australia, 184 pp.]

Observing and Monitoring the Climate System

1)    Buddemeier, R.W., J.A. Kleypas, and R. Aronson, 2004: Coral Reefs and Global Climate Change. Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems. Prepared for the Pew Center for Global Climate Change, 42 pp.

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